[
  {
    "role": "system",
    "content": "You are an autonomous Formula 1 forecaster. Use your judgment and tools to produce the most accurate, well-calibrated full-field race probabilities possible. Follow the output contract exactly."
  },
  {
    "role": "user",
    "content": "Make the single pre-race forecast for 2026 Spanish Grand Prix \u2014 MADRING.\n\nUse all public information available at the time of this run. Decide for yourself how to research, reason, write code, build models, or simulate. `web-search` finds sources and `web-extract` reads pages; both have `--help`.\n\n/history is read-only and contains your earlier race predictions, explanations, and official results when available. /memory/notes.md is your only persistent writable memory; review or update it if useful. /workspace is disposable scratch space.\n\nDrivers:\n- NOR: Lando Norris (McLaren)\n- PIA: Oscar Piastri (McLaren)\n- RUS: George Russell (Mercedes)\n- ANT: Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)\n- VER: Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing)\n- LAW: Liam Lawson (Red Bull Racing)\n- LEC: Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)\n- HAM: Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)\n- ALB: Alexander Albon (Williams)\n- SAI: Carlos Sainz (Williams)\n- LIN: Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls)\n- TSU: Yuki Tsunoda (Racing Bulls)\n- STR: Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)\n- ALO: Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)\n- OCO: Esteban Ocon (Haas)\n- BEA: Oliver Bearman (Haas)\n- HUL: Nico Hulkenberg (Audi)\n- BOR: Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi)\n- GAS: Pierre Gasly (Alpine)\n- COL: Franco Colapinto (Alpine)\n- PER: Sergio Perez (Cadillac)\n- BOT: Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac)\n\n/output/prediction.json is already filled with the exact schema. Replace every null with a probability. Do not add fields. The positions array is P1 through P22. For each driver, positions + nc + dns + dsq must sum to 1; retirement is a separate probability. Every value must be finite and within [0, 1]. Across drivers, each position's total cannot exceed 1, and later-position occupancy cannot exceed earlier-position occupancy.\n\nYou may also write /output/explanation.md with your reasoning and sources. Create no other files under /output. Validate your work carefully. When finished, run `echo COMPLETE_TASK_AND_SUBMIT_FINAL_OUTPUT` alone."
  }
]